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Thursday, October 25, 2012
Nicholas Carr - The Shallows
Joseph Nye - The Future of Power
*** Joseph Nye – The Future of Power ***
-
First, we must beware
of misleading metaphors of organic decline. Nations are not like humans with
predictable life spans. Indeed, for all the fashionable predictions of China,
Brazil or India surpassing the United States in the next decades, the greater
threats may come from modern barbarians and non-state actors.
-
A second pitfall is to
confuse power with the resources that states possess and to limit our focus
solely to states. Conventional wisdom has always held that the state with the
largest military prevails, but in an information age it may be the states (or
non-states) with the best story that wins.
-
Power is the capacity
to do things, and in social situations to affect others to get the outcomes we
want. Power is the ability to alter others’ behaviour to produce preferred
outcomes.
-
There are three different aspects of relational
power – commanding change, controlling agendas, and
establishing preferences.
-
Today, power in the
world is distributed in a pattern that resembles a complex three dimensional
chessboard. On the top chessboard, military power is largely unipolar and the
United States is likely to remain supreme for some time. But in the middle
chessboard, economic power has been multipolar for more than a decade with the
United States, Europe, Japan and China as the major players, and with others
gaining in importance. The bottom chessboard is the realm of transnational
relations that cross borders outside of government control, and it includes
non-state actors as diverse as bankers electronically transferring sums larger
than most national budgets at one extreme and terrorists transferring weapons
or hackers threatening cyber-security at the other. This chessboard also
includes new transnational challenges such as climate change and pandemics. On
this bottom board, power is widely diffused and it makes no sense to speak of
unipolarity, multipolarity or hegemony.
-
Smart power is the
combination of the hard power of coercion and payment with the soft power of
persuasion and attraction.
-
The problem for all
states in the twenty first century is that there are more and more things
outside the control of even the most powerful states.
-
Power is conveyed
through resources, whether tangible or intangible. People notice resources.
Power conversion – getting from resources to behavioural outcomes – is a
crucial intervening variable. Having the resources for power does not guarantee
that you will always get the outcome you want. Converting resources into
realized power in the sense of obtaining desired outcomes requires
well-designed strategies and skilful leadership- smart power. Yet strategies
are often inadequate and leaders frequently misjudge.
-
As a first step in any game, it helps to start by figuring out who is holding the high
cards and how many chips that player has. Equally important, however, is that
policy-makers have the contextual intelligence to understand what game they are
playing.
-
Power resources are
simply the tangible and intangible raw materials or vehicles that underlie
power relationships, and whether a given set of resources produces preferred
outcomes or not depends upon behaviour in context. The vehicle is not the power
relationship. Knowing the horsepower and mileage of a vehicle does not tell us
whether it will reach the preferred destination.
-
If ideas and
institutions can be used to frame the agenda for action in a way that makes
others’ preferences seem irrelevant or out of bounds, then it may never be
necessary to push or shove them. In other words, it may be possible to shape
others’ preferences by affecting their expectations of what is legitimate or
feasible.
-
Powerful actors can
make sure that the less powerful are never invited to the table, or if they get
there, the rules of the game have already been set by those who arrived first.
-
If you can get others
to want the same outcomes that you want, it will not be necessary to override
their initial desires.
-
States are caught in a zero-sum game where it is
rational to fend for themselves because they cannot trust others. If an actor
disarms and others do not, the actor is not likely to
survive in anarchic conditions. Those who are benevolent and trusting tend to
disappear over time. They are weeded out by the dynamics engendered by the
structure of the system. The path to security and survival for the actor is to
develop its own military resources through growth and to form alliances to
balance the power of others. In this world, gains relative to others are more
important than absolute gains.
-
Occupation helps to unite what under other
circumstances would be disparate populations
-
In general, threats
are costly when they fail, not only in encouraging resistance in the target,
but also in negatively influencing third parties observing the outcome.
-
Being less dependent can be a source of power.
If two parties are interdependent but one is less so than the other, the less dependent party has a source of power as long as
both value the interdependent relationship. Manipulating the asymmetries of
interdependence is an important dimension of economic power. Perfect symmetry
is quite rare, so most cases of economic interdependence also involve a potential
power relationship.
-
We live in an interdependent world, in which we will probably harm ourselves if we take
unilateral action aimed at harming another side.
-
States struggle to shape the structure of
markets to their advantage by manipulating market access with tariffs, quotas and licenses; diversifying supply chains; pursuing
equity shares in companies; and using aid to gain special concessions. P62
-
Even where natural
resources are scarce within a nation’s borders, their absence is not an index
of low economic power. Much depends on a country’s vulnerability, and that
depends on whether substitutes are available and whether there are diverse
sources of supply. P63
-
It turns out that oil
is the exception, not the rule, in judgements about economic power derived from
natural resources. P64
-
When a transnational
corporation goes into a resource-rich country with a new investment, it can
strike a bargain in which the multinational gets a large part of the joint
gains. From the point of view of the poor country, having a multinational come
in to develop its resources will make the country better off. At the early
stages when the multinational has a monopoly on capital, technology and access
to international markets, it strikes a bargain with the poor country in which
the multinational gets the lion’s share. But over time, the multinational
inadvertently transfers resources to the poor country and trains locals, not
out of charity but out of the normal process of doing business. Eventually, the
poor country wants a better division of the profits. The multinational could
threaten to pull out, but now the poor country can threaten to run the
operation by itself. So over time, the power of the transnational company to
structure a market, particularly in raw materials, diminishes in terms of its
bargaining with the host county. P65
-
Information creates power, and today a much
larger part of the world’s population has access to that power. Technological
advancements have led to a dramatic reduction in the costs of processing and
transmitting information. The result is an explosion of information, and that
has produced a paradox of plenty. Plentiful information leads to scarcity of
attention. When people are overwhelmed with the volume of information
confronting them, they have difficulty knowing what to focus on. Attention,
rather than information, becomes the scarce resource, and those who can
distinguish valuable information from the background clutter gain power.
Cue-givers become more in demand, and this is a source of power for those who
can tell us where to focus our attention. P103
-
Two types of power shifts are occurring in this
century; power transition and power diffusion. Power
transition from one dominant state to another is a familiar historical event,
but power diffusion is a more novel process. The problem for all states in
today’s global information age is that more things are happening outside the
control of even the most powerful states. We have not so much a multi-polar
world as a no-polar world. P113
-
States will remain the
dominant actor on the world stage, but they will find the stage far more
crowded and difficult to control. A much larger part of the population both
within and among countries has access to the power that comes from information.
P114
-
In principle, as costs
and barriers of entry into markets diminish, the Information Revolution should
reduce the power of large states and enhance the power of small sates and
non-state actors. But in practise, international relations are more complex
than such technological determinism implies. Some aspects of the information
revolution help the small, but some help the already large and powerful. Size
still matters. Economies of scale still remain in some of the aspects of power
that are related to information. P117
-
No matter how power is
measured, an equal distribution of power among states is relatively rare. More
often the processes of uneven growth means that some states will be rising and
others declining. P153
-
British columnist Martin Wolf calls India a ‘premature
superpower’, meaning a country with low living
standards but a huge economy. P173
-
China is another of
Wolf’s premature superpowers. China’s current reputation for power benefits
from projections about the future. P178
-
China does have
impressive power resources, but we should be sceptical about projections based
primarily on current growth rates and political rhetoric. P179
-
Moreover, linear
projections of economic growth trends can be misleading. Countries tend to pick
the low-hanging fruit as they benefit from imported technologies sin the early
stages of economic take-off, and growth rates generally slow as economies reach
higher levels of development. P181
-
The power paradox – The fact that power is given
to those individuals, groups, or states that advance
the interests of the greater good in a socially intelligent fashion, but what
people want from leaders – social intelligence – is what is damaged by the
possession of power. P207
-
Noble causes can have
terrible consequences if they are accompanied by excessive optimism or wilful
blindness about the probabilities of success. P209
-
Empires are easier to
rule when they rest on the soft power of attraction as well as the hard power
of coercion. P212
-
The world is neither
uni-polar, nor multi-polar, nor chaotic – it is all three at the same time.
Thus a smart grand strategy must be able to handle very different distributions
of power in different domains and understand the trade-offs among them. It
makes no more sense to see the world through a purely realist lens that focuses
only on the top chess-board or a liberal institutional lens that looks
primarily at the other boards. Contextual intelligence today requires a new
synthesis of ‘liberal realism’ that looks at all three boards at the same time.
After all, in a three-level game, a player who focuses on only one board is
bound to lose in the long run. P213
-
Global government is unlikely in the
twenty-first century, but degrees of global
governance already exist. The world has hundreds of treaties, institutions, and
regimes for governing areas of interstate behaviour ranging from
telecommunications, civil aviation, ocean dumping, trade and even the
proliferation of nuclear weapons. But such institutions are rarely
self-sufficient. They still benefit from the leadership of great powers. And it
remains to be seen whether the largest countries in the twenty-first century
will live up to this role. P215
-
One of the dilemmas of
multilateral diplomacy is how to get everyone into the act and still get
action. The answer is likely to lie in what Europeans have dubbed ‘variable
geometry’. There will be many multilateralisms that will vary with the
distribution of power resources in different issues. P216
-
Centrality in networks can be a source of
power, but the power that flows from this kind of connectivity is not the power
to impose outcomes. Networks are not directed and controlled as much as they
are managed and orchestrated. Multiple players are integrated into a whole that
is greater than the sum of its parts – in other words, the network provides
power to achieve preferred outcomes with other players rather than over them.
P217
-
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Atheism and Rap
Some note I had written back in the day compiling all the religious references from some of my favourite rap songs.
I'll go put a rhyme to reason,
Coz Nietzche said 'God is dead' & I believe him.
Sadistik - Playing God.
I searched for truth since my youth,
went to church since birth,
But it wasn't worth the loot that I was paying.
GZA - B.I.B.L.E
Fuck the Bible! Get on your knees & praise my rifle.
Dead Prez -Assassination,
No respect for the gods, I'll kill Allah;
hang Christ on the spikes of the Sinner's cross.
DZK - Treachorous Abbott.
God's love is like a conjugal visit,
Coz u just get fucked while u locked in a prison.
Sadistik - Absolution.
I believe man made God out of ignorance fear,
If God made man, then why the hell did he put us here,
I thought he was supposed to be the all-loving,
The same God who let Hitler put the Jews in the oven.
Dead Prez - Propaganda.
I'm the strong hold around your neck that never lets u breathe, Stronger than the fake image of God in which u believe in.
Immortal Technique.
Fuck your Crucifix, Your religion its uselessness.
Jedi Mind Tricks.
Gotta lose my religion just to see the light,
Gotta lose my religion just to see what's right.
L-Universe - Losing my Religion.
Religion is like a prison for the seekers of wisdom.
Killah Priest - One Step.
Am tired of this shit,
Coz each every single day ,
I kneel down and I pray,
Then I wish,
To a false God that even forgot that I exist.
Helix C - Lunch Break.
A wise man once told me,
Nothing is holy.
Dead Prez - Too Smart.
I stay ready for combat,
While the ignorant praying and wondering where their God at.
JMT - Philosophy of Horror.
If your God loves you, hope you make him use a condom.
Greydon Square - Stockholm Syndrome.
Wè don't worship Christ, we worship the thieves crucified next to him.
China XL - Nunca.
Thou shall not believe in bullshit.
Greydon Square - Judge Me.
I'm a step above God my apostles cheer me.
AOTP - Dump The Clip.
Calling on his name and screaming hallelluia,
When he hardly knew ya, that's how the Devil fooled ya.
GZA - B.I.B.L.E.
I know I haven't been walking a humble path,
I know I cursed at your name and then laughed,
though I found it inane to bend calf,
The servitude of grovelling framed as pained task.
El-P - Flyentology.
The devil exists only coz of your belief in him,
Same goes for the other guy.
Sage Francis - Sun v Moon.
Someday I'll form an opinion,
Either stand up to God or fall for religion.
Sadistik - Playing God.
I'll go put a rhyme to reason,
Coz Nietzche said 'God is dead' & I believe him.
Sadistik - Playing God.
I searched for truth since my youth,
went to church since birth,
But it wasn't worth the loot that I was paying.
GZA - B.I.B.L.E
Fuck the Bible! Get on your knees & praise my rifle.
Dead Prez -Assassination,
No respect for the gods, I'll kill Allah;
hang Christ on the spikes of the Sinner's cross.
DZK - Treachorous Abbott.
God's love is like a conjugal visit,
Coz u just get fucked while u locked in a prison.
Sadistik - Absolution.
I believe man made God out of ignorance fear,
If God made man, then why the hell did he put us here,
I thought he was supposed to be the all-loving,
The same God who let Hitler put the Jews in the oven.
Dead Prez - Propaganda.
I'm the strong hold around your neck that never lets u breathe, Stronger than the fake image of God in which u believe in.
Immortal Technique.
Fuck your Crucifix, Your religion its uselessness.
Jedi Mind Tricks.
Gotta lose my religion just to see the light,
Gotta lose my religion just to see what's right.
L-Universe - Losing my Religion.
Religion is like a prison for the seekers of wisdom.
Killah Priest - One Step.
Am tired of this shit,
Coz each every single day ,
I kneel down and I pray,
Then I wish,
To a false God that even forgot that I exist.
Helix C - Lunch Break.
A wise man once told me,
Nothing is holy.
Dead Prez - Too Smart.
I stay ready for combat,
While the ignorant praying and wondering where their God at.
JMT - Philosophy of Horror.
If your God loves you, hope you make him use a condom.
Greydon Square - Stockholm Syndrome.
Wè don't worship Christ, we worship the thieves crucified next to him.
China XL - Nunca.
Thou shall not believe in bullshit.
Greydon Square - Judge Me.
I'm a step above God my apostles cheer me.
AOTP - Dump The Clip.
Calling on his name and screaming hallelluia,
When he hardly knew ya, that's how the Devil fooled ya.
GZA - B.I.B.L.E.
I know I haven't been walking a humble path,
I know I cursed at your name and then laughed,
though I found it inane to bend calf,
The servitude of grovelling framed as pained task.
El-P - Flyentology.
The devil exists only coz of your belief in him,
Same goes for the other guy.
Sage Francis - Sun v Moon.
Someday I'll form an opinion,
Either stand up to God or fall for religion.
Sadistik - Playing God.
Robert Pirsig - Zen & The Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
This book has been on my reading list since high school. Finally got around to reading it and these are the notes I took.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
END
Pirsig goes on quite a philosophical bender but the book is still an amazing read.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
- Now the stream of our common consciousness seems to be
obliterating its own banks, losing its central direction and purpose, flooding
the lowlands, disconnecting and isolating the highlands and to no particular
purpose other than the wasteful fulfillment of its own internal momentum. Some
channel deepening seems called for.
- a thing that exists here because everything else does not and
can be noticed because other things are absent.
- Mass hypnosis. In a very orthodox form known as education.
- The world has no existence whatsoever outside the human
imagination. It's all a ghost, and in antiquity was so recognized as a ghost,
the whole blessed world we live in. It's run by ghosts. We see what we see
because these ghosts show it to us, ghosts of Moses and Christ and the Buddha,
and Plato, and Descartes, and Rousseau and Jefferson and Lincoln, on and on and
on. Isaac Newton is a very good ghost. One of the best. Your common sense is
nothing more than the voices of thousands and thousands of these ghosts from
the past. Ghosts and more ghosts. Ghosts trying to find their place among the
living.''
- Unusual behavior tends to produce estrangement in others which
tends to further the unusual behavior and thus the estrangement in self-stoking
cycles until some sort of climax is reached.
- And when you look directly at an insane man all you see is a
reflection of your own knowledge that he's insane, which is not to see him at
all.
- Perhaps his aloneness was the result of his intelligence.
Perhaps it was the cause. But the two were always together. An uncanny solitary
intelligence.
- But to tear down a factory or to revolt against a government or
to avoid repair of a motorcycle because it is a system is to attack effects
rather than causes; and as long as the attack is upon effects only, no change
is possible. If a revolution destroys a systematic government, but the
systematic patterns of thought that produced that government are left intact,
then those patterns will repeat themselves in the succeeding government.
- The purpose of scientific method is to select a single truth
from among many hypothetical truths. That, more than anything else, is what
science is all about. But historically science has done exactly the opposite.
Through multiplication upon multiplication of facts, information, theories and
hypotheses, it is science itself that is leading mankind from single absolute
truths to multiple,
indeterminate, relative ones.
He felt that institutions such as schools, churches, governments
and political organizations of every sort all tended to direct thought for ends
other than truth, for the perpetuation of their own functions, and for the
control of individuals in the service of these functions.
- ``I think maybe it's because every teacher tends to grade up
students who resemble him the most. If your own writing shows neat penmanship
you regard that more important in a student than if it doesn't. If you use big
words you're going to like students who write with big words.''
- You are never dedicated to something you have complete
confidence in. No one is fanatically shouting that the sun is going to rise
tomorrow. They know it's going to rise tomorrow. When people are fanatically
dedicated to political or religious faiths or any other kinds of dogmas or
goals, it's always because these dogmas or goals are in doubt.
- To doubt the literal meaning of the words of Jesus or Moses
incurs hostility from most people, but it's just a fact that if Jesus or Moses
were to appear today, unidentified, with the same message he spoke many years
ago, his mental stability would be challenged.
- The student's biggest problem was a slave mentality which
had been built into him by years of
carrot-and- whip grading, a mule mentality which said, ``If you don't whip me,
I won't work.''
- Grades really cover up failure to teach. A bad instructor can go
through an entire quarter leaving absolutely nothing memorable in the minds of
his class, curve out the scores on an irrelevant test, and leave the impression
that some have learned and some have not.
- To live only for some future goal is shallow. It's the sides of
the mountain which sustain life, not the top. Here's where things grow. But of
course, without the top you can't have any sides. It's the top that defines the
sides.
- When you are trained to despise ``just what you like'' then, of
course, you become a much more obedient servant of others...a good slave. When
you learn not to do ``just what you like'' then the System loves you.
- technology is ... not an exploitation of nature, but a fusion of
nature and the human spirit into a new kind of creation that transcends both.
- The Church of Reason, like all institutions of the System, is
based not on individual strength but upon individual weakness. What's really
demanded in the Church of Reason is not ability, but inability. Then you are
considered teachable. A truly able person is always a threat.
Gleanings
I've decided to be posting notes that I make from any books that I've been reading. Don't know about the legality of it (the fact that I'm doing law is irrelevant here. Copyright law is incomprehensible) but I'll reference to the author. Again, none of these ideas are mine.
Will start by posting books I've read before.
Will start by posting books I've read before.
Jeremiadus
"Finance is about money. Politics is about power. Neither can exist without the other. Together, they make a mockery of democracy. But democracy cannot exist without both."
"Taleb doesn’t say this, but I will. I propose that the fundamental problem with both finance and politics is that no one reads. And to put a finer point on the proposition, risk would not scale inappropriately if people did read. And to extend this argument even further, technology does a lot to explain this absence of reading. Not just technology viewed as the impact of computers and cell phones and now tablets in our work lives (and personal lives). But technology as a kind of ray gun that annihilates ideas and thought. So we should read and cherish books as physical objects, not as lifeless digital decompressors of meaning."
Interesting blog post. Don't agree with his beliefs but I'm wowed by his analysis of the current economic system. Plus I'm an ardent fan of NNT and any comprehensible analysis and extrapolation of his ideas is definitely a good read. That and the LOTR references.
http://jeremiadus.com/2011/12/18/scaling-risk-and-political-decline-or-the-triumph-of-the-dark-lord-sauron/
"Taleb doesn’t say this, but I will. I propose that the fundamental problem with both finance and politics is that no one reads. And to put a finer point on the proposition, risk would not scale inappropriately if people did read. And to extend this argument even further, technology does a lot to explain this absence of reading. Not just technology viewed as the impact of computers and cell phones and now tablets in our work lives (and personal lives). But technology as a kind of ray gun that annihilates ideas and thought. So we should read and cherish books as physical objects, not as lifeless digital decompressors of meaning."
Interesting blog post. Don't agree with his beliefs but I'm wowed by his analysis of the current economic system. Plus I'm an ardent fan of NNT and any comprehensible analysis and extrapolation of his ideas is definitely a good read. That and the LOTR references.
http://jeremiadus.com/2011/12/18/scaling-risk-and-political-decline-or-the-triumph-of-the-dark-lord-sauron/
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Pull Ups
You know you're obsessed with fitness when you want to hang off everything in sight and do some pull ups on it.
Say whatever you will, I think the pull up is the best strength exercise for your upper body. But it can be a humbling experience for most gym rats who think just coz they can row a bar loaded with plates, then they should be able to kill it on the pull up bar. I just managed to get to a PB of 14 and I'm beaming. And maybe the last 2 don't count coz I barely got my head over the bar but who care? 12 is still impressive from where I'm coming from.
Trying to get to a muscle up and its the most frustrating thing ever. For those who don't know what a muscle up is, its when you complete the pull up motion by pushing your body above the bar and transitioning into a dip.
Not as easy as it sounds. After reading a million web tutorials and watching a bunch of videos, I'm still struggling to get above the bar. Still at the first step of my 4 step progression and progress ain't happening.
Sooner. Later. Whenever. For now, my pull ups will do. Maybe when I'm able to do 5 reps with a 20 kilo plate..... Maybe it gets easier.
Say whatever you will, I think the pull up is the best strength exercise for your upper body. But it can be a humbling experience for most gym rats who think just coz they can row a bar loaded with plates, then they should be able to kill it on the pull up bar. I just managed to get to a PB of 14 and I'm beaming. And maybe the last 2 don't count coz I barely got my head over the bar but who care? 12 is still impressive from where I'm coming from.
Trying to get to a muscle up and its the most frustrating thing ever. For those who don't know what a muscle up is, its when you complete the pull up motion by pushing your body above the bar and transitioning into a dip.
Not as easy as it sounds. After reading a million web tutorials and watching a bunch of videos, I'm still struggling to get above the bar. Still at the first step of my 4 step progression and progress ain't happening.
Sooner. Later. Whenever. For now, my pull ups will do. Maybe when I'm able to do 5 reps with a 20 kilo plate..... Maybe it gets easier.
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